The week hiring stalled at 29,000 and the 30-year mortgage reached 7.28%

Two numbers pulled in opposite directions this week. On Friday the government said employers added only 29,000 jobs in September, and the odds of another Federal Reserve rate increase this month collapsed. A day earlier, Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year mortgage at 7.28%, up from 7.03% a week before and 6.34% a year ago. One of those numbers is about the economy cooling. The other is what it costs to buy a house in it.

The 15-year average rose to 6.60%, from 6.42% a week earlier and 5.55% a year ago. Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater, said in the release: "With mortgage rates on their current trajectory, the housing market continues to be supported by favorable economic conditions."

The jobs report: 29,000

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that payrolls grew by 29,000 in September and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. It also revised the two months before it down by a combined 60,000. July now reads as a loss of 10,000 jobs, and August as a gain of 133,000 instead of 162,000.

Health care added 17,000 jobs, construction 11,000 and manufacturing 9,000. Financial activities lost 7,000. Average hourly pay rose 5 cents in the month to $37.81, and was up 3.0% over the year. The October report is due Friday, November 6.

The market: a good Friday, a flat week

The Associated Press said the slower hiring cooled worries that a hot economy would push prices up, and stocks rose on it. Friday's close, as reported by the Associated Press: the S&P 500 at 7,722.72, up 0.7% and within 1% of its record; the Dow at 51,176.96, up 250.40 points; the Nasdaq at 27,190.86, up 1.2%.

The week as a whole was a wash. The S&P lost 0.3% and the Dow 1.3%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.5%. For the year so far, the S&P is up 12.8%, the Nasdaq 17% and the Dow 6.5%.

Inflation: lower than expected, measured a new way

The Fed's preferred gauge, personal consumption expenditures, came out Wednesday. Prices were up 3.4% over the year in August, and 3.0% without food and energy, according to CNBC's report on the Commerce Department release. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had expected 3.7% and 3.3%.

The same report changed how the government measures several prices, including legal services, software and computer accessories, and portfolio management. That change alone lowered July's core reading by about a third of a percentage point, so part of the drop is the new method rather than cheaper goods. Both numbers remain well above the Fed's 2% target. The September Consumer Price Index comes out Wednesday, October 14.

The Fed: October off the table, December not

After the jobs report, CME's FedWatch tool showed a 17% chance of a quarter-point increase at the October 27 and 28 meeting, down from close to 36% a week earlier, CNBC reported. On the prediction market Kalshi, the chance fell to 18%, from almost 70%. Traders still lean toward an increase in December: above 75% on FedWatch and 65% on Kalshi. The committee raised its range to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, and meets again December 8 and 9.

Oil: Brent above $100

Brent, the international benchmark, was $103.37 a barrel at 9:15 a.m. Eastern on Friday, according to Fortune, about $37 higher than a year earlier. The paper could not confirm Friday's settlement prices from a source it could read, so this week's oil section stops at that one dated price.

Gold and silver: slightly lower

Spot silver ended Friday at $61.07 an ounce, down 0.12%, according to Rio Times. The largest gold fund, GLD, closed at $380.14, down 0.68%. Rio Times said it could not verify a Friday close for spot gold itself; on Thursday it settled at $4,182.29. The same report put the ten-year Treasury yield at 5.28% on Friday, up from 5.24%. Rio Times noted that higher yields make metals, which pay no interest, less attractive to hold.

Bitcoin: up for the day, down for the year

Bitcoin was $86,682.15 at 9:21 a.m. Eastern on Friday, about $3,234 above the morning before and about $33,930 below where it traded a year earlier.

New on the books

The paper found no new state or federal rule that took effect for Texas households on October 1. The next date that changes paperwork for people here is November 1, when the European Union starts requiring product codes on every parcel sold to a consumer there. That rule, and who it reaches, is this week's resource piece.

On the calendar

• October: Montgomery County property tax statements go out. The ways to pay them are in last week's resource piece.
• Wednesday, October 14: September consumer prices.
• October 27 and 28: the next Federal Reserve meeting.
• November 1: the EU product-code rule for parcels.
• Friday, November 6: the October jobs report.

What it adds up to for a family here

Worked with this week's published numbers. The arithmetic is ours; every rate is the one printed above. Principal and interest only, before taxes and insurance.

• If you are borrowing $260,000 on a 30-year loan, the payment at a year-ago 6.34% was about $1,616 a month. At this week's 7.28% it is about $1,779. That is about $163 more each month, or roughly $1,950 a year, for the same loan. Against last week's 7.03%, it is about $44 more.
• On a $300,000 loan the year-over-year move is about $188 a month, from about $1,865 to about $2,053.
• On a 15-year loan of $260,000, the year-ago 5.55% came to about $2,131 a month and this week's 6.60% to about $2,279, a difference of about $148.
• If your mortgage is fixed and already signed, none of this changes your payment. It changes the math on refinancing, and on what the next buyer of your house can borrow.
• If you carry a card balance or a home-equity line, this week did not move it. Those follow the prime rate, which moves with the Fed. The market now expects no Fed move in October.
• If someone in the house is looking for work, the national picture this month is slower hiring, with health care and construction still adding jobs.

The default, if nobody in the house does anything at all: a signed fixed mortgage stays where it is, variable debt waits on the Fed's October meeting, and anyone buying a house without a locked rate is quoted whatever the bond market says that morning.

Sources this week: Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 1, 2026, including the Sam Khater quotation; the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation for September 2026, released October 2; the Associated Press index table as published by WTOP for Friday closes and weekly and yearly changes; CNBC on the August PCE release and on the rate-hike odds; the BLS consumer price schedule; the Federal Reserve's meeting calendar; Fortune on oil and on Bitcoin; Rio Times on gold, silver and the ten-year yield. Friday oil settlements and Texas pump prices are left out because the paper could not confirm them from a primary source before publication.