The week mortgage rates crossed 7% and oil gave back 8%

The number that moved a Magnolia household this week was not a stock price. It was the ten-year Treasury yield, which climbed to about 5.1%, a level not seen since 2007. Home loans follow that yield, and on Thursday Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the average 30-year mortgage at 7.03%, up from 6.95% the week before and 6.30% a year ago.

Freddie Mac's chief economist, Sam Khater, put the other side of it in the same release: "The housing market remains supported by a solid labor market and an economy that is growing at a healthy rate." The 15-year average rose to 6.42%, from 6.26% a week earlier and 5.49% a year ago.

The market: up for the week anyway

Stocks shrugged at the bond market. Friday's close, as reported by the Associated Press: the S&P 500 at 7,743.41, up 0.5% on the day; the Dow at 51,828.62, up 478.64 points; the Nasdaq at 27,068.72, up 0.5%. For the week the S&P gained 1.2%, the Dow 0.3% and the Nasdaq 2.1%. Smaller companies went the other way: the Russell 2000 lost 0.8% on the week. The AP said a cooldown in oil did much of the lifting, and left the S&P about 0.7% from its record.

Oil: down about 8% for the week

West Texas Intermediate settled Friday at $92.41 a barrel, down 2.33% on the day and down about 8% from last Friday's $100.30. Brent, the international benchmark, settled at $104.30 and ended the week roughly where it started. The National tied the slide to reports that US and Iranian negotiators were exploring a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Prices touched nearly $108 on Thursday first, after Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted missiles launched by the Houthi militia.

Two benchmarks moving apart is worth a sentence. The American barrel fell hard on the prospect of a deal; the global one did not, because the supply it depends on is still the one running past Yemen.

Inflation: the Fed's preferred gauge lands Wednesday

The August reading of personal consumption expenditures, the measure the Federal Reserve targets, is scheduled for Wednesday, September 30, at 7:30 a.m. Central, with the third estimate of second-quarter growth the same morning. The July reading had prices up 3.7% over the year. The September Consumer Price Index follows on October 14.

The Fed: five weeks to the next meeting

The committee raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% on September 16. Its next meeting is October 27 and 28, with one more on December 8 and 9. Mortgage rates do not wait for either; they have already moved on the bond market this month.

Gold and silver: a losing week, a better Friday

Gold closed Friday at $4,284.91 an ounce, up 0.46% on the day and down 2.2% for the week. Silver closed at $64.29, up 1.08% Friday and down 3.1% for the week, according to Rio Times. The reason given is the same one the mortgage market felt: "Gold pays no interest, so higher real yields make it less attractive." Last week the metals rose against rising yields. This week they did not.

Bitcoin: still about a fifth below last year

Bitcoin was $84,413.49 at 9 a.m. Eastern on Friday, up 0.56% from the morning before and 22.58% below the $109,040.63 it traded at a year earlier. The record is still $126,198.07, set October 6, 2025.

On the calendar

• Wednesday, September 30: the August inflation reading and second-quarter growth.
• October: property tax statements go out from the Montgomery County Tax Office. The ways to pay them, and what each date costs, are in this week's resource piece.
• October 14: September consumer prices.
• October 27 and 28: the next Federal Reserve meeting.

What it adds up to for a family here

Worked with this week's published numbers. The arithmetic is ours; every rate is the one printed above. Principal and interest only, before taxes and insurance.

• If you are borrowing $260,000 on a 30-year loan, the payment at a year-ago 6.30% was about $1,609 a month. At this week's 7.03% it is about $1,735. That is about $126 more each month, or roughly $1,500 a year, for the same loan.
• On a $300,000 loan the same move is about $145 a month, from about $1,857 to about $2,002.
• On a 15-year loan of $260,000, the year-ago 5.49% came to about $2,123 a month and this week's 6.42% to about $2,253, a difference of about $130.
• If your mortgage is fixed and already signed, none of this changes your payment. It changes the math on refinancing, and on what the next buyer of your house can borrow.
• If you carry a card balance or a home-equity line, this week did not move it. Those follow the prime rate, which moved with the Fed on September 17 and has not moved since.

The default, if nobody in the house does anything at all: a signed fixed mortgage stays where it is, variable debt waits on the Fed's October meeting, and anyone who has not locked a rate on a house they are buying is quoted whatever the bond market says that morning.

Sources this week: Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey of September 24, 2026, including the Sam Khater quotation; USAGOLD's September 25 report for the ten-year yield near 5.10% and its highest level since 2007; the Associated Press index table as published by KRMG for Friday closes and weekly changes; The National for the oil settlements and the reasons behind them, with last Friday's $100.30 from our September 19 recap; the Bureau of Economic Analysis release schedule and its July estimate; the Federal Reserve's meeting calendar; Rio Times on gold and silver; Fortune on Bitcoin. Pump prices are left out this week because the paper could not confirm the current Texas averages from a primary source before publication.