Next year's Social Security raise is set Wednesday. How the number is made, and what it does to a $2,000 check

On Wednesday morning, October 14, the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September consumer prices. That release finishes the arithmetic for next year's Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, and the 2027 figure is announced the same day, AARP reported. The raise shows up in January checks.

How the number is made

The adjustment does not use the headline inflation number most news reports quote. It uses a narrower index, the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, called the CPI-W. The Senior Citizens League describes the method as "taking the average of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners, or the CPI-W, from July to September of each year."

1. Average the CPI-W for July, August and September of 2026.
2. Average it for the same three months of 2025.
3. The percentage increase from the second average to the first is the adjustment.

July and August are already published, which is why forecasters can get close. September is the last third of the answer.

What the forecasts say

• AARP: 3.6%, from its analysis of current inflation data.
• The Senior Citizens League: 3.5%.
• This year's adjustment, for comparison, was 2.8%, according to AARP.

Neither forecast is the answer. Wednesday's release is.

What it does to a check

AARP put the average retirement benefit at about $2,086 a month in July. The paper's arithmetic on that check and on a round $2,000:

On a $2,000 check, every tenth of a percentage point is $2 a month, or $24 a year.

The premium that comes out of the same deposit

For most retirees on Medicare, the Part B premium is taken out of the Social Security payment before it lands. That premium is $202.90 a month this year. The 2027 amount has not been set. The Medicare trustees projected $209.50, and the official figure is expected in November, MOAA reported.

• If the projection holds and the adjustment is 3.5%, a $2,000 check rises $70 and the premium rises $6.60. The deposit grows by about $63.40.
• If the premium does not change at all, the deposit grows by the full $70.
• If the premium comes in higher than projected, every extra dollar comes off the $70.

If you do nothing

Nothing has to be filed. The adjustment is applied to every benefit automatically and arrives with the January payment.

Things to check when the notice arrives

• The gross benefit and the net deposit, which differ by the Medicare premium and any tax withheld.
• The Part B line, once the 2027 premium is announced in November.

Sources: AARP on the announcement date, its forecast, the 2026 adjustment and the average retirement benefit; The Senior Citizens League on the method and its forecast; MOAA on the Part B projection; the BLS release schedule. The table and the deposit examples are the paper's arithmetic.