The week the Fed held, inflation reached 3.6% and silver fell below $50

The Federal Reserve held still on Wednesday, and the next morning's numbers explained why two of its voters had wanted to move. The inflation measure the Fed targets rose to 3.6% over the year, the economy grew at a 3.4% annual pace, and oil finished its fourth straight month higher. Stocks fell hard on Friday. Gold and silver fell harder.

The market: the Nasdaq down 2.9% Friday

Friday's close, as reported by the Associated Press: the S&P 500 at 7,580.07, down 140.32 points, or 1.8%; the Dow at 51,770.31, down 572.25 points, or 1.1%; the Nasdaq at 25,437.00, down 747.73 points, or 2.9%. Smaller companies in the Russell 2000 fell 1.7%.

For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.6%, the Dow 0.9% and the Nasdaq 2%. The Russell 2000 still finished the week up 1.3%. For the year so far, the S&P is up 10.7%, the Nasdaq 9.4% and the Dow 7.7%.

Oil: up 13.6% for October

West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, settled Friday at $104.12 a barrel, up $2.12 on the day and about 0.8% on the week. Brent's December contract expired Friday at $117.64, up 2.4%, and the January contract that now leads the market settled at $113.43, FinanceFeeds reported, citing Reuters. Brent gained 13.6% in October and WTI 15.2%, a fourth monthly gain in a row for both. The report pointed to a tanker struck by explosives in the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi claims of strikes on Saudi refineries. A group of OPEC+ members meets online Sunday.

The pump keeps going the other way, for now. AAA's Saturday reading puts the Texas average for regular at $3.66 a gallon, down from $3.73 a week ago and $3.93 a month ago, and $1.09 higher than a year ago. The Houston-area average is $3.65. Diesel in Texas averages $5.76, up $2.57 from a year ago.

Inflation: 3.6% on the Fed's preferred gauge

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.5% in September and 3.6% from a year earlier, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. Without food and energy, prices rose 0.3% for the month and 3.1% for the year. Household spending rose 0.5% while personal income rose 0.2%.

The same morning, the bureau's first estimate put growth for July through September at a 3.4% annual rate. Both numbers get revised. The next readings arrive November 25, on the bureau's schedule.

The Fed: no change, two votes for an increase

The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark range at 3.75% to 4% on Wednesday, its statement said. The vote was 10 to 2. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented, each preferring a quarter-point increase. The statement said economic activity "is expanding at a strong pace" and that inflation "remains elevated," and it gave no signal about the next move. Its last change was an increase on September 16.

The next decision is December 9. After the inflation report, USAGOLD wrote Friday that a December increase was "firmly in play." That is a reading of the market, not a decision.

Mortgages: down to 7.24%

Freddie Mac's Thursday survey put the average 30-year rate at 7.24%, down from 7.32% the week before and the lowest reading this month. A year ago it was 6.17%. The 15-year average eased to 6.60%, from 6.68%.

Gold and silver: the lowest close of the year, and silver under $50

Gold closed Friday at $3,875.20 an ounce, down 3% from $3,996.18 a week earlier and its lowest close of the year, FMV's weekly metals report showed. That leaves it about 10% below where it ended 2025. Silver closed at $49.13, down 8.9% for the week and roughly 31% for the year. Reuters, as carried by The Standard, said silver traded at its lowest since November 2025 and tied the drop to energy prices, the inflation report and the expectation that rates stay high. What a sale of coins or bars means at tax time is in this week's resource.

Bitcoin: down about 5% for the week

Bitcoin was $77,380.93 at 8:15 a.m. Eastern on Friday, down 3.3% from the morning before and 28.6% below where it traded a year earlier, according to Fortune. A week earlier it was $81,546.37, a drop of about 5%.

New on the books

Workplace open enrollment season is under way, and one set of 2027 numbers is already final. The IRS has raised the health savings account limit to $4,500 for self-only coverage and $9,000 for a family, in Revenue Procedure 2026-24. Who can contribute, and what a contribution does to a tax bill here, is in this week's resource.

In Texas, part of a 2025 law took effect September 1: gold and silver coins and bars that are marked as the law requires are now legal tender in this state. The same section says nobody can be required to offer or accept them. The rest of the law, including a payment system tied to the state's bullion depository, takes effect May 1, 2027.

• November 1: HealthCare.gov opens for 2027 plans. The dates are in this resource.
• November 25: the October inflation reading the Fed targets, and a second look at third-quarter growth.
• December 9: the Fed's next decision.

What it adds up to for a family here

Worked with this week's published numbers. The arithmetic is ours; every rate is the one printed above.

• If your household buys 15 gallons of regular a week, $1.09 a gallon more than a year ago is about $16 a week, or roughly $850 a year. The Texas average fell 7 cents this week while crude rose.
• If you are borrowing $260,000 on a 30-year loan, this week's 7.24% means a payment of about $1,772 a month, principal and interest only. That is about $14 less than at last week's 7.32%, and about $185 more than at the year-ago 6.17%.
• If you carry a $5,000 card balance, a quarter-point Fed increase would add about $12.50 a year in interest. Nothing changed Wednesday; two of the twelve voters wanted that increase.
• If a family on a qualifying plan puts the full $9,000 into a health savings account in 2027, its federal income tax falls by about $1,080 in the 12% bracket, or about $1,980 in the 22% bracket. Texas has no state income tax to add to it.

The default, if nobody in the house does anything at all: a fixed mortgage already signed stays where it is, a variable card rate follows the Fed whenever it moves, and coins or bars in a drawer owe no tax until they are sold.

Sources this week: the Associated Press index table as published by KRMG; Reuters via FinanceFeeds on Friday's oil settlements and October's gains; AAA's Texas gas prices as of October 31, 2026; the BEA's September personal income release, its third-quarter GDP advance estimate and its release schedule; the Federal Reserve's October 28 statement and meeting calendar; USAGOLD's October 30 report; Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 29, 2026; FMV on gold and silver closes; Reuters via The Standard; Fortune on Bitcoin; Revenue Procedure 2026-24; House Bill 1056 as enrolled. A dated CME FedWatch probability for December is left out because the paper could not read one from a source before publication.

Saturday Morning · Not money news

This weekend around Magnolia

• Today, 11 a.m. to 3 p.m.: Fall Fest at the Magnolia Event Center, 11659 FM 1488. Free. Details are in Friday's Halloween weekend guide.
• Today, 2 to 6 p.m.: Halloween in downtown Montgomery, 245 McCowan St. Free.
• Today: the last day to enter Montgomery's Christmas parade, unless the 100-entry cap fills first, per the City of Montgomery.
• Sunday: the Montgomery County Food Bank's Holiday Helpings drive opens and runs through December 31. Clocks fall back an hour at 2 a.m.

Texas outdoors

This is the early youth-only weekend for white-tailed deer, October 30 through November 1, and the general season opens statewide next Saturday, November 7, running to January 3 in the North Zone and January 17 in the South Zone, on the Texas Parks and Wildlife calendar. Quail season opens Sunday and runs through February 28.

More dates through December are on the paper's fall and holiday calendar.