The week September prices rose 3.7% and set next year's Social Security raise at 3.6%

One report did most of the work this week. On Wednesday the Bureau of Labor Statistics said consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over the past year, up from 3.4% in August. The same numbers finished the math for next year's Social Security raise, which the agency announced that morning at 3.6%.

Inflation: the gas pump did it

The BLS said the gasoline index rose 9.1% in September alone and accounted for more than half of the month's increase. Over twelve months, gasoline is up 34.2% and energy as a whole 20.4%.

Take food and energy out and the picture is calmer. Core prices were up 2.6% over the year. Shelter rose 3.2% and food 2.5%, and food prices did not move at all from August to September.

At the pump here, AAA's Monday reading put the Texas average for regular at $3.82 a gallon, 8 cents lower than the week before and $1.15 higher than a year ago, FOX 4 reported. Diesel averaged $5.67, up $2.51 from a year ago. The national average was $4.36, and AAA said this is the first year it has been above $4 in October.

The Fed: an October increase is now a real possibility

The Federal Reserve raised its range a quarter point in September, to 3.75% to 4%. It meets next on October 27 and 28. Before Wednesday's report, futures traders put the chance of another increase at that meeting at 22.1%. By 12:20 p.m. Eastern the same day, CME Group's FedWatch tool had it at 41.5%, 24/7 Wall St. reported. That is a price on a bet, not a decision.

The market: technology stocks took the hit

Friday's close, as reported by the Associated Press: the S&P 500 at 7,659.44, down 1.1%; the Dow at 52,002.41, down 0.3%; the Nasdaq at 26,140.03, down 2.1%.

The week split the indexes. The Nasdaq fell 4.5% and the S&P 500 1.9%, while the Dow gained 0.7%. Smaller companies in the Russell 2000 lost 3%. For the year so far, the S&P is up 11.9%, the Nasdaq 12.5% and the Dow 8.2%.

Mortgages: no change at 7.40%

Freddie Mac's Thursday survey put the average 30-year rate at 7.40%, the same as the week before. A year ago it was 6.27%. The 15-year average slipped to 6.71%, from 6.73%.

Oil: a big drop in U.S. supplies

On Thursday, West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, settled at $97.97 a barrel, up $2.88, or about 3%. The gain followed a large drop in U.S. crude inventories. Brent, the international benchmark, settled at $105.92, down 14 cents, the UAE news agency WAM reported, as carried by Sharjah24. The paper could not confirm Friday's settlement from a source it could read before publication, so Thursday's is the one printed.

Gold and silver: mostly flat Friday

Spot gold traded near $4,168 an ounce Friday, about where it started the day, and silver near $56.85, down about 0.8%, according to Kitco figures cited by Rio Times. Those are trading levels, not closes. The largest gold fund, GLD, closed at $382.01, compared with $384.58 a week earlier. Kitco said the hope of a pause in Fed rate increases pulled one way and the jump in oil pulled the other.

Bitcoin: about a quarter below a year ago

Bitcoin was $82,644.65 at 7:45 a.m. Eastern on Friday, up 2.1% from the morning before and about $25,600 below where it traded a year earlier, according to Fortune. A week earlier it was about $82,400.

Veterans: the same 3.6%, once Congress acts

Military retired pay rises 3.6% on its own under permanent law, the American Legion reported, or $36 for every $1,000 a month. VA disability compensation and survivors' dependency and indemnity compensation do not. Congress passes a cost-of-living bill for them every year.

This year's, the Veterans' Compensation Cost-of-Living Adjustment Act of 2026, would raise those payments by the Social Security percentage effective December 1. On congress.gov, the House version, H.R. 8552, cleared a subcommittee by voice vote on June 30. The Senate version, S. 4487, has been in committee since May 11. Neither had passed as of Saturday. Last year's version became law on November 25, 2025, six days before it took effect.

The Legion's examples: a 100% rating with no dependents goes from $3,939 to $4,080 a month, and a 10% rating from $180.42 to $186.92. It said the first higher payment would arrive December 31 or in early January, with no paperwork. Those are the Legion's figures. The bill directs VA to publish the official amounts in the Federal Register.

New on the books

The Social Security raise came with the rest of next year's numbers: a higher ceiling on the paycheck tax, higher earnings limits for people who claim before full retirement age, and new SSI payment amounts. All of it is in this week's 2026-against-2027 table. Separately, people who buy their own health insurance can start shopping for 2027 plans on November 1. The dates and the automatic renewal are in this week's resource. Teachers, police, firefighters and EMS workers have their own set of federal and Texas programs, from half-price HUD homes to loan forgiveness, gathered in a second resource, with local store discounts in the paper's standing discount guide.

On the calendar

• October 27 and 28: the next Federal Reserve meeting.
• November 1: HealthCare.gov opens for 2027 plans. The EU product-code rule for parcels also starts, explained October 3.
• Friday, November 6: the October jobs report.
• Late November: Social Security's COLA notices appear in my Social Security accounts.
• December 7: Medicare open enrollment ends. The details are in last week's resource.
• December 31: the higher SSI payment arrives.

What it adds up to for a family here

Worked with this week's published numbers. The arithmetic is ours; every rate is the one printed above.

• If your household buys 15 gallons of regular a week, $1.15 a gallon more than a year ago is about $17.25 a week, or roughly $900 a year.
• If someone in the house draws Social Security, a $2,000 monthly benefit becomes $2,072 in January, or $864 more over the year, before any change in the Medicare premium that comes out of the same deposit.
• If you carry a $5,000 card balance and the Fed does raise rates on October 28, a quarter point is about $12.50 a year in added interest. If it does not, the rate stays where it is.
• If you are borrowing $260,000 on a 30-year loan, this week's 7.40% means a payment of about $1,800 a month, principal and interest only. At a year-ago 6.27% it was about $1,604, so about $196 more each month for the same loan.
• If you earn more than $184,500, Social Security tax reaches $7,800 more of your pay in 2027. For an employee that is up to $483.60 more for the year.
• If someone in the house draws VA disability at 100% with no dependents, the Legion's figures put the raise at $141 a month, once the cost-of-living bill becomes law. Military retired pay rises without waiting on Congress.

The default, if nobody in the house does anything at all: the Social Security raise arrives on its own in January, a fixed mortgage already signed stays where it is, and a HealthCare.gov plan renews automatically for 2027.

Sources this week: the BLS consumer price release of October 14, 2026; the Social Security Administration's COLA page and 2027 fact sheet; AAA's October 12 Texas reading as reported by FOX 4; the Federal Reserve's meeting calendar; CME FedWatch as reported by 24/7 Wall St.; the Associated Press index table as published by WTOP; Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey of October 15, 2026; WAM via Sharjah24 on Thursday's oil settlements; Rio Times on gold and silver; Fortune on Bitcoin; the American Legion on the veterans and military retiree increases; congress.gov for the status of H.R. 8552, S. 4487 and last year's law. Friday's oil settlement and a rate-odds reading newer than Wednesday are left out because the paper could not confirm them from a source it could read before publication.